Jason Swanson: Futurism Is an Invitation to Depict the Future, Not Predict It
A Mother of Success Interview
Interview by: Xiao He
Guest: Jason Swanson
Introduction
Xiao He:
Jason, thank you so much for taking the time. To start, could you introduce yourself to our readers?
Jason Swanson:
Thank you for having me. My name is Jason Swanson. I’m a professional futurist, and I live in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. I have the pleasure and privilege of exploring futures related to learning and education, and I’ve been doing that with a national nonprofit called KnowledgeWorks for almost 11 years now.
KnowledgeWorks is celebrating its 20th anniversary—20 years of applying foresight to education. Before that, I worked at boutique firms and consultancies, partnering with nonprofits and exploring futures for automakers, technology, global finance, and more. That wide exposure really shaped how I think about change and possibility.
What Is a Professional Futurist?
Xiao He:
How would you explain “professional futurist” to someone outside your field?
Jason Swanson:
This is always a work in progress. I think we’re all futurists—we all have ideas about the future, what we want to happen, what we fear, and how the world could be different. The difference is that I get paid to do this all day.
More specifically, professional futurists apply methods and rigor. We treat futures thinking as a social science intertwined with creativity. No data exists in the future, so we make and manage assumptions about change. Then we lean into storytelling to depict how the future could unfold.
The goal isn’t prediction—it’s asking better questions. Why is change happening this way? What narratives are missing? How do different futures clarify what we want—or don’t want? Ultimately, it’s about looking at our world and its changes with a critical eye.
Applying Futures Thinking to Education
Xiao He:
Can you walk us through a concrete example: how this thinking applies to education or policy?
Jason Swanson:
At KnowledgeWorks, our role is to research and publish forecasts that are useful to the field, especially K-12 education, but really learning writ large.
We work in 3-year publishing cycles that start with a broad look into the futures of learning—looking at major drivers of change, trends, and patterns—and then explore a range of possibilities. In the remaining years of the publication cycle, we dive deeper into specific themes raised in the broad forecasts, as well as creating content for people to make sense of the future, such as strategy guides.
So, how does this play out in terms of an actual publication? Let’s take the example of educator roles. If we are curious about what futures of educator roles, we would look at our trend data and start to make and manage assumptions, for instance, if we assume learning becomes more personalized and happens beyond school walls—museums, mentorships, out-of-school environments—then educator roles will likely change. Or we might ask, if our vision for learning to look as I just described, we might ask: What jobs need to be done for that future to be possible, and I am borrowing from Christianson’s framework here, but these are 2 good examples for thinking about future possibilities for educator roles.
Of course, we also would want to explore counter-assumptions. What if learning stays within school walls but becomes more digitally mediated? Then we imagine different roles—hybrid educators, tech facilitators, even AI-driven teaching agents. By developing a range ofscenarios or images of the future, we can uncover implications that help systems prepare.
Generative AI and Accelerating Futures
Xiao He:
How has the rise of generative AI changed the way you approach forecasting?
Jason Swanson:
AI has been a through line in our work for decades, but 2022 was a real inflection point. The speed of adoption—the hockey-stick curve—was unprecedented. Nothing else has reached 100 million users that fast.
From a foresight perspective, this forces us to confront acceleration. Many things we once thought were ten years out are suddenly here.
One framework I find helpful is John Smart’s Evo-Devo model—looking at evolutionary paths (technology gets faster, cheaper, easier) and developmental paths (the choices we make along the way). Gen AI forces us to imagine harder, be bolder, and depict futures that stretch beyond linear thinking.
Concerns, Risks, and Ethical Questions
Xiao He:
Do you have worries about AI—especially in education?
Jason Swanson:
Absolutely. I’m not overly optimistic or pessimistic, but I have serious questions. I worry about social isolation, especially for young people, and the misuse of AI as a replacement for human connection.
These technologies are built within capitalism, and success metrics often reward compulsive use rather than meaningful impact. When AI is embedded in toys or platforms designed for constant engagement, that concerns me.
I’m also alarmed by the gatekeeping of information and the potential for surveillance. These are not abstract fears—they’re things that genuinely keep me up at night.
From Research to Policy Impact
Xiao He:
How do these concerns shape your work—and how do your ideas reach policymakers?
Jason Swanson:
Bias is unavoidable—we all bring hopes and fears into our work. That’s why futures thinking must be collaborative. I work with a team of brilliant futurists who constantly challenge my assumptions. We also engage experts, advisors, and people directly affected by these futures.
Once a forecast is published, the real work begins: sense-making. That might look like workshops with policymakers, immersive experiences, games, or even theater. Policy is a blunt tool—so we invite people to live inside a future for a moment, then step back and ask: What did we learn?
Experiential Futures: Living Inside 2036
Xiao He:
Can you share an example of these immersive experiences?
Jason Swanson:
We’re running a large event in Nevada—over 200 educators, policymakers, parents—imagining a graduation ceremony in 2036. It’s grounded in Nevada’s aspirations: personalization, open-wall learning, and deep partnerships with industry.
Participants interact with actors, students, and artifacts from the future—AI tools, student projects, and new assessment models. They vote, celebrate, and experience what that future could feel like. It’s familiar enough to be accessible, but strange enough to spark insight.
I have been really influenced by the work of Stuart Candy and Jake Dunigan around experiential futures; futures that are interactive, immersive, and often based on play. We have been working that model of engagement into our practice for a while and have found it to be a fantastic approach for translating the future for people and giving them a shared, participatory experience to help generate insights and delve into some deep analytical thinking.
Why an Independent Nonprofit?
Xiao He:
Why do this work through an independent nonprofit instead of a state department or university?
Jason Swanson:
Capacity. Departments of education are overwhelmed with compliance and day-to-day demands. It takes a tremendous amount of effort and skill to keep a classroom, school, or university working day-to-day. Thinking about the future, for many, is a luxury. Futures thinking requires space to step back and imagine.
At KnowledgeWorks, our foresight work is a philanthropic gift to the field. We publish everything openly. That independence lets us ask bigger questions and support systems without adding burden.
Global Perspectives on Future-Focused Education
Xiao He:
Are there inspiring examples outside the U.S.?
Jason Swanson:
Absolutely. Finland’s HundrED is a global clearinghouse for innovation. Singapore leads in teacher professionalization and foresight literacy. New Zealand embeds futures thinking into government decision-making.
Locally, Remake Learning in Pittsburgh is extraordinary—especially their Moonshot grants, which fund bold experiments grounded in future visions. Organizations like the Learner Studio and Institute for the Future are also doing fantastic work.
A Personal Journey Into Futures Thinking
Xiao He:
What keeps you so passionate about this work?
Jason Swanson:
It started with a lightning-bolt moment. I heard a futurist speak right before the 2008 crash—he had forecasted it down to the month. I cornered him afterward and asked how he did it.
That led me to the University of Houston’s foresight program. I found my tribe. I realized I could put method behind how I naturally see the world—big-picture, pattern-oriented thinking.
I treat this work like a craft. I believe deeply in the notion of compounding practice—repetition, mastery, finding your voice over time. Even now, I love this work more than ever. It’s been the joy and privilege of a lifetime.
Recommendation
Xiao He:
To close, do you have a book, film, or podcast recommendation?
Jason Swanson:
Yes—Ologies with Allie Ward. She interviews experts across every imaginable field, from fireflies to space food. It’s endlessly curious and always fascinating.
Xiao He:
Thank you so much, Jason!
Bonus: Futurism Is Not About Prediction — It’s About Depiction
Toward the very end of our conversation, Jason returned to a point he felt was essential to clarify:
“None of this is about prediction. None of this.”
For Jason, futurism is not about getting the future “right.” It is not forecasting winners, timelines, or certainties. Instead, it is about depiction: carefully making and managing assumptions, then depicting a range of possible futures.
Some of those futures may be complementary.
Some may be antagonistic.
Some may feel hopeful, others unsettling.
But it is precisely that range that matters.
By depicting multiple futures, rather than collapsing them into a single prediction, futurism creates space for reflection, agency, and choice. It allows individuals, institutions, and policymakers to ask better questions:
Which future do we want to move toward?
Which futures do we want to avoid?
What decisions are we making today that quietly shape tomorrow?
As Jason put it, futurism is ultimately an invitation — an invitation to imagine, to participate, and to think critically about change before it arrives.
Not to predict the future.
But to depict it, and decide how we respond.
See Jason's recent work at: Nurturing What's Next